Tag: General Election

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Tories should stop pandering to boomers, tax them back to work 

The Conservatives must counter the narrative that they’re the party of the elderly by taking a hard line on older voters — even if that means forgoing the next election

The trouble with the Conservative Party right now is they don’t realise they’re already dead. And so, they continue pandering to older voters in the false hope it will bring them electoral salvation, when in reality they’re only digging their graves deeper still. 

This time, the government is trying to lure over 50s, who have driven a sharp national increase in economic inactivity since the pandemic, back into the workplace by exempting them from income tax entirely — perhaps for a year. 

The move is clear proof that the popular view of Conservatives as the party of the elderly is correct. Pandering to older voters at all costs isn’t a winning strategy. If the party wants to enjoy electoral success ever again, it must counter this narrative. It needs to start using a stick rather than a carrot, and it can start right now: Instead of coaxing indolent over 50s back to work with tax breaks, Conservatives should be taxing them for their inactivity.

The rise in economic inactivity among 50-64 year olds since the pandemic is understandably of great concern to the government. In May to July 2022, there were 386,096 more economically inactive adults in this age group than in the pre-COVID-19 period. Thought to be caused by the ‘Great Resignation’, this harms the economy by reducing the tax base and squeezing already tight labour supply.

But the government’s suggestion of waiving taxes for returning workers is a total non-starter. How satisfied would over 50s who’ve remained in work be if their early-retiring contemporaries returned on a red carpet of tax incentives? Expect a marked increase in sabbaticals if this proposal goes through. 

More importantly, this policy signals to voters the Conservatives are willing to put older generations on an unjustifiable pedestal. How could it be reasonable to introduce yet another policy that will increase generational inequality when so much of our national wealth is already tied up in boomer’s property and pensions? How can it be right that older people will be net beneficiaries of the welfare state when younger generations are expected to pay so much into a system from which they can expect so little in return?

Instead of using a ‘carrot’ to entice older workers back into employment, the government should use a ‘stick’ to push them back in. Chris Smyth, the Whitehall Editor at The Times, floated taxing these workers back into employment, while political commentator Sam Freedman wrote a “big wealth tax including primary residence should sort it”.

Of course, both jokingly acknowledged that the Conservatives won’t do this. Smyth said this “obviously isn’t going to happen”, while Freedman responded to the Director at the Centre for Policy Studies, Robert Coville’s, dismay with a tongue in cheek reply, “what, you don’t think my patented ‘total electoral suicide’ policy is a runner?”

But these are exactly the kind of policies the Conservatives need to bring forward. The party faces a generational crisis. A recent YouGov poll put the Conservatives at 25% — hardly a winnable position — but that drops to just 16% for under 50s. Similarly, the Financial Times’ John Burn-Murdoch sent shockwaves through Conservative circles with his research showing millennials are bucking the trend by not becoming more right wing as they age. Not only have the Conservatives already lost 2024, these demographics show it’s possible they’ll never win again.

Conservatives should listen to Daniel Finkelstein and start acting as if they’ve already lost the 2024 election to accelerate their transformation into an electable party. The Financial Times’ Janan Ganesh’s sage advise to Keir Starmer offers lessons to the Conservatives about how to do this. Ganesh argued that Labour needs to act right-wing to convince voters they’ve moved beyond Jeremy Corbyn. Similarly, the Conservatives need to show they’re willing to take a tough line on older people to show they’re no longer a geriatric special interest group.

Policies aimed at young people will not be enough. Onward’s new Director Sebastian Payne’s focus on housing and childcare, though welcome, won’t cut it. Voters need to see the party has changed its colours by severing ties with its traditional, ageing base.

That may mean throwing the next general election, and it will require Rishi Sunak to swallow his pride and realise he’s a transitional Prime Minister, but you can only play the cards you’re dealt. Pandering to a demographic of waning importance is myopic.

If the Conservative Party is to have a future, it must slay its old self that’s reliant on old voters. Only then might it rise, phoenix like, reborn.

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Conservative Communications – The Next 5 Years

I wrote this report shortly after the December election. Most of it still holds up and a lot of it has already been enacted. There are also a few ideas that are yet to be announced that I still think are likely.

The Conservative Party face a unique and challenging 5 years in government. They won the election with a massive 80-seat majority having won constituencies previously thought unwinnable in Labour’s traditional heartlands. The scale and nature of their victory, as well as the changing political climate, means that they will need a carefully considered strategic communications approach. There are three parts to this approach; they need to get Brexit done, deliver for their new voters and to start working for young people.

Brexit

‘Get Brexit Done’ was the three-word mantra that was repeated endlessly to obvious success during the election, playing well with a public frustrated with Brexit delay. The communications approach should be minimal. It should be clear that Brexit is ‘getting done’ but the government should avoid triumphalist rhetoric. Middle-England is not proud of Brexit, Big Ben should not chime on ‘Brexit Day’.

New Voters

The Conservatives need to deliver for their new voters in the Midlands, the North and those ‘left behind’. There is a recognition that many traditional Labour voters ‘lent’ the Conservatives their vote for this election only. As Boris Johnson said upon re-entering Number 10, he needs to “reward the trust” of his unlikely voters. The Conservatives will need to communicate that they care about the whole country, not just London, and ironically for the many, not the few.

Policy:

  • High-profile investment – projects focused on helping these areas should be the focus of the Budget in March.
  • Devolution – would show the government cared about the whole country and not just London. James Cleverly was shrewd when he said the House of Lords could be moved to York. Even if it doesn’t happen, it shows how this government is thinking.
  • Euros – is being jointly hosted by England. The FA’s headquarters could be relocated to the Midlands near the St George’s training facility.
  • World Design Capital of the year – is currently Lille with Valencia following in 2022, why not Manchester or Birmingham in 2024?

Communication:

  • MPs – should be encouraged to be more visible in their constituencies with more emphasis on local campaigns so people feel represented.
  • #rorywalks – was the standout communications success from the Conservative leadership election. The public respected a politician getting out of London to talk to people. MPs in marginal seats could follow suit, broadcasting it on Facebook and Twitter.
  • Mainstream media – is a must for a populist government. The boycott of Today could continue while popular, non-news related programmes like A Question of Sport could be explored.  

Young People

However, the election did not bring up all the communications challenges that the Conservatives will face in the next 5 years. So far, the Conservatives have ridden the wave of New Populism to appeal to those who want to ‘take back control’. However, younger generations have never felt like they were in control, instead they have their own problems and feel ignored. As the Fourth Industrial Revolution affects our lives more and more, the pressure for change from younger generations will increase. The Conservatives cannot ignore them. If another party cracks the politics of the Fourth Industrial Revolution first the Conservatives will struggle after 2030.

Policy:

  • Housing – extend the Right to Buy ISA and introduce policies to encourage house building and protect private rental tenants.
  • Student loans – reduce the interest rate.
  • Environment – introduce symbolical policies in Parliament, such as announcing a pledge to go carbon neutral by 2030 at CP26 held in Glasgow this year.

Communication:

  • MPs – could visit sixth-form centres and universities in their constituencies on a regular basis. By talking to young people in small groups they would hear what issues young people care about.
  • Government dynamism – will be key if the government is to handle the coming technological change. Dominic Cumming’s blog advertising jobs for “weirdos and misfits” signals an appreciation of this.
  • New media – channels will need to be explored if the government wants to reach young people. MPs could appear in videos with popular YouTubers or even launch their own channels, perhaps vlogging ‘a day in the life’ style.

Overall, the Conservatives face a tough 5 years given the unusual circumstances in which they came into government. However, with the right strategic communications they could secure a time in office unprecedented in modern times. If they get it right, they could be the government that solved Brexit, healed the wounds of a divided nation and prepared Britain for a turbulent future.